TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Slumping sluggers, ailing pitchers combining for some April anxiety in fantasy baseball

Almost a month into the 2024 MLB season and TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centernearly every fantasy baseball manager is saying one of two things:

1) Why can’t anyone hit? My offense is so bad.

2) All my pitchers are hurt.

In extreme cases, both 1) and 2) can be true at the same time.

Despite some impressive individual performances (thank you, Mookie Betts, Elly De La Cruz, Marcell Ozuna and Adolis Garcia), it’s been a pretty rough start almost across the board.

MLB SALARIES: Baseball's top 25 highest-paid players in 2024

As the new week began, here’s a quick snapshot.

• Five of Sunday’s 16 games ended in shutouts.
• The Chicago White Sox were shut out seven times in their first 19 games.
• The Colorado Rockies finally snapped a 23-inning scoreless streak AT HOME, dating back to April 10.

Over almost the exact same span of games from last year, overall scoring is down slightly.

2023 (through April 23): 662 games, 3,026 runs, 4.57 rpg, 12.2 HR/FB%

2024 (through April 21): 660 games, 2,935 runs, 4.45 rpg, 10.5 HR/FB%

But perhaps the most glaring difference in the early going is a sizable drop in home runs, which form the lifeblood of most fantasy teams. Consider three of the top five players in average draft position (ADP) this spring.

Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuña Jr., who blasted 41 home runs last season, didn’t hit his first of this season until last Thursday, April 17.

Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez (32 HR in 2023) has gone without a homer in his first 87 at-bats.

Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll (25 last year) has hit just one home run – an April 9 solo shot at Colorado's Coors Field.

Other players who (through April 21) have yet to hit their first home run of the season: Spencer Torkelson (86 AB), Wyatt Langford (83), Gleyber Torres (80), Nick Castellanos (79), Alex Bregman (75), Andrew Vaughn (72) and Byron Buxton (69).

Not to mention the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday played their eighth consecutive game without anyone on the team going deep. (An odd way to pay tribute to the late Whitey Herzog, that’s for sure.)

The baseball question

Is it just cold April weather or is there something else going on?

The MLB research site Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal on X) posted some data last week, noting home runs were down 15% from last year.

Ballpark Pal’s model looks at the exit velocity, launch angle, direction, stadium and weather conditions of all batted balls and compares their estimated distance with the actual distance.

So far in 2024, the ball isn’t flying as far as the data says it should – ominously suggesting that “carry distance is on level with the notorious dead ball April of 2022.”

And mind you, it IS just a snapshot in time, but you’d have to go all the way back to 1992 (before the Rockies, Marlins, Rays and Diamondbacks were even born) to find a season in which the leaguewide slugging percentage was lower than its current .383 mark.

So, if your superstar slugger’s early season slump seems to be subverting your fantasy team’s success, you’re not alone in your assessment.

Pain and pitching

Given the overall lack of offense so far, the logical conclusion is that pitchers must be ahead of the hitters – and dominating.

As the hitters might say … Not so fast.

Since aces Spencer Strider and Shane Bieber suffered season-ending injuries over the same weekend earlier this month, there’s been an intense focus on just how much of a toll the injury bug is taking on the game’s top pitchers.

Whether it’s the never-ending quest for an extra tick on the radar gun or the pursuit of heightened spin rates on breaking balls, a pitcher’s arm doesn’t seem capable of enduring that kind of stress forever.

And once they perfect ways to get every ounce of energy out of their deliveries, it’s almost impossible to go back.

While the downside of spending a top pick on a hitter this year has been an annoying homerless drought, the downside of investing in a top pitcher has been much worse.

Take a look at the top pitchers in 5x5 Roto value from last season:

1. Gerrit Cole, $37
2. Felix Bautista, $25
3. Blake Snell, $25
4. Devin Williams, $24
5. Kyle Bradish, $23
6. Clayton Kershaw, Zach Eflin, $22

Depending on when you drafted, you may have already known that all five of those top pitchers (plus Kershaw) wouldn’t be on active opening day rosters.  

It’s also possible you drafted after Cole and Williams were hurt, but still couldn’t avoid injuries to Strider, Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Eury Perez or Jhoan Duran.

Among starters drafted in this year’s upper tiers, only Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler have consistently pitched like aces.

Fantasy managers have been forced to do plenty of triage on their pitching staffs already this season to stay afloat. Fortunately, we’re not even one-sixth of the way to the finish line, and there’s time to recover.

Perhaps the best way to counter pitching injuries at the start of the season is to take a cue from what the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros have done. Get some talented pitchers who are already recovering from injuries and stash them on the injured list for later.

I’ve been an advocate of that strategy, especially in fantasy leagues with an unlimited IL, because it opens up roster spots at a time when the player pool is in its greatest state of uncertainty.

You never know when a replacement pickup such as Ronel Blanco, Kutter Crawford or Ranger Suarez could turn into a major contributor. Churning through your last few roster spots, even if you don’t always hit on a keeper, can help a fantasy team survive some rough patches in the early going.

And yes, there’s even some good news bubbling to the surface as few of those injured pitchers are starting to return.

• Justin Verlander (shoulder inflammation) pitched six solid innings and got the win in his season debut on April 19.
• Nick Lodolo (calf) has allowed one earned run in 12 innings since he was activated April 13.
• Edward Cabrera (shoulder) has struck out 17 batters in 11 innings with a 3.27 ERA over two starts.

And it may not be much longer before Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Kyle Bradish are back on a major league mound. It’s also possible Cole, Kershaw and Jacob deGrom could be difference-makers after the All-Star break.

As difficult as it may be to process now, April is the cruelest month for baseball fans. It will get better.